Chelsea are the likelier winner at Stamford Bridge, but this looks like a tight London derby with a moderate goals outlook and strong case for both teams to score.
Where to watch
In the UK, Chelsea vs Tottenham is live on Sky Sports, with Sky Go streaming for subscribers, and Chelsea’s official app and website will also carry live updates, audio commentary, and full-match replay after midnight on match night. The match is scheduled for Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 8:15pm UK time at Stamford Bridge.
Recent form
Chelsea’s recent run is mixed. Sports Mole lists their last six across all competitions as L-D-L-W-L-L, and their last six Premier League results as D-L-L-L-L-L, which suggests poor league consistency despite occasional resistance in tougher fixtures. Their most recent listed game was a 1-1 draw at Liverpool, which is a better signal than the raw league sequence alone.
Tottenham’s recent form is also uneven, but slightly steadier than Chelsea’s league sequence. Sports Mole shows their last six across all competitions as D-W-W-D-L-L, and their last six Premier League results are the same, indicating a team capable of short good spells but still vulnerable. Their last listed game was a 1-1 home draw with Leeds, again pointing to a side that is not fully reliable away from chaos.
Head-to-head record
The historical matchup leans clearly toward Chelsea. AiScore says the clubs have played 72 times since 1995, with Chelsea winning 42, Tottenham winning 10, and 20 draws. Over the last five meetings shown there, Tottenham have won two and Chelsea have won three, but Chelsea still hold the broader edge in the rivalry.
The recent meetings also suggest Chelsea have had the better tactical grip. Sports Mole lists Chelsea winning 1-0 at Spurs on 1 November 2025 and 1-0 at home on 3 April 2025, while the 2024 meeting at Spurs finished 4-3 to Chelsea, which confirms that this fixture can swing between tight and open depending on the game state.
Injuries and suspensions
Chelsea’s listed concern in the available preview is João Pedro, while the same source also notes Estevao as part of the injury/suspension discussion, but the more decisive point is that Chelsea appear to have fewer major absences than Spurs in the current preview pool. Tottenham, by contrast, are dealing with a longer and more disruptive absentee list, with names such as James Maddison, Dominic Solanke, Dejan Kulusevski, Destiny Udogie, and others appearing in the current injury-related reports. That imbalance matters because Tottenham’s chance creation is usually more fragile when several attacking and wide options are missing.
Goal patterns
Chelsea’s season profile in the available data suggests a team with decent scoring power but not always control. Sports Mole states Chelsea have scored 55 goals, and their model projects a 48.58% home-win probability, with over 2.5 goals at 57.79% and both teams to score at 58.54%. Tottenham’s scoring output is lower, with 46 goals in the same source, which fits the idea that their away attacking ceiling is more limited.
The same data also leans toward a match with goals but not necessarily a shootout. Sports Mole rates under 3.5 goals at 64.6%, while the most likely Chelsea win scoreline is 2-1. In practical betting terms, that points to a mid-range total rather than an extreme one.
Betting angles
Winner 1X2: Chelsea to win. The home edge, stronger head-to-head record, and Tottenham’s heavier injury burden all support Chelsea, even if the margin is not huge. Confidence: 61.0%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5. The model data shows over 2.5 at 57.79%, and recent Chelsea-Tottenham meetings have often produced open phases, especially when early goals arrive. Confidence: 56.0%.
Both Teams to Score: Yes. Sports Mole places BTTS at 58.54%, and both sides have shown enough attacking output to make a clean sheet on either side less likely than average. Confidence: 59.0%.
Yellow Cards over/under 3.5: Over 3.5. A London derby with pressure, tactical fouls, and late-season tension usually pushes card volume upward, and this fixture profile is rarely calm. Confidence: 63.0%.
Corners 7.5 over/under: Over 7.5. Chelsea’s home pressure and Tottenham’s likely low-to-mid block should create sustained wing attacks and set-piece volume, which generally lifts corner counts. Confidence: 60.0%
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